It's too early to jump to conclusions

Hail to the Redskins! Hail (one) Victory!

The Washington Redskins won a game and suddenly they're favorites to win the NFC Least, er, East.

The Cowboys (2-0) won't have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for at least half the season. The Eagles (0-2) look dismal on offense. The Giants (0-2) can't protect any lead.

So, those dysfunctional Redskins (1-1) are your team to beat.

Typical overreaction.

Sure, the Redskins were impressive in a 24-10 win over St. Louis, which came off its own impressive victory over Seattle in the opener. But don't make playoff plans in the nation's capital just yet.

The Cowboys may not have Romo or Bryant for a while, but their defense was outstanding against Philadelphia and will add Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain in three weeks. With Romo and Bryant, they could've run away with their second straight division title. Now, they'll have to win games on defense and hope Brandon Weeden doesn't make crucial mistakes.

As for the Eagles, they have too much talent to be this bad. Kelly led them to a division title after a 1-3 start in 2013.

Of course, he had Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and the best offensive line in the league that season. Then he got rid of Foles, McCoy, Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and two-thirds of the line — Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans. His collection of high-priced stars led by Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray isn't doing the job, but it's too early to count them out.

Then there's the Redskins. Rookie Matt Jones and Alfred Morris give Washington a formidable 1-2 punch. With the league's best rushing attack, Kirk Cousins might only have to be a game manager at quarterback. Is it enough to win the division? Thursday night's game at the Giants will be telling.The Giants could be undefeated. Poor clock management cost them a win in Dallas and they blew another double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against Atlanta. Don't bet against Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr.

Here are other overreactions from Week 2:

OVERREACTION >> Move over, Seattle. Arizona is the beast of the NFC West. The Seahawks are 0-2 following a loss at Green Bay. The Cardinals are 2-0 and look dominant.

REALISTIC REACTION >> Yes, Seattle faces an uphill battle. Only 11.2 percent (23 of 204) of teams made the playoffs after an 0-2 start since 1990. But the Seahawks had a fourth-quarter lead at Lambeau Field before Aaron Rodgers rallied the Packers. They might be just a Kam Chancellor away from fixing things and making a run. The Cardinals are always a Carson Palmer injury away from falling apart.

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OVERREACTION >> DeMarco Murray's record-breaking season in Dallas was a fluke. Murray is averaging 1.6 FEET (not yards) per carry in two games with the Eagles.

REALISTIC REACTION >> Murray isn't going to run for 1,800 yards again, especially behind this offensive line in Philadelphia. But if Kelly makes some adjustments, Murray should get going.

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OVERREACTION >> Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are going 16-0. Brady is on pace to throw for 6,032 yards and 56 TDs. He's unstoppable.

REALISTIC REACTION >> After a tumultuous offseason, Brady has predictably come out with something extra to prove in wins over Pittsburgh and Buffalo. But the Patriots can't keep this up in an improved division. They won't run the table, but maybe 14-2.

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OVERREACTION >> Travis Benjamin is the new Randy Moss. Benjamin has TD catches of 54, 50 and 60 yards and he's also returned a punt 78 yards for a score.

REALISTIC REACTION >> Benjamin's three long TD receptions are a fantasy owner's dream, but he has just three other catches in two games. Defense should be more aware of him now, so let's not send him to Hawaii already.

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OVERREACTION >> The Saints are cooked. New Orleans is 0-2 following a home loss to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers and Drew Brees might have a shoulder injury.

REALISTIC REACTION >> If Brees is out, things could get ugly for the Saints. Then again, this is the NFC South. Carolina won the division at 7-8-1 last year. No team is out of it.

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OVERREACTION >> Same old Rex Ryan. He brought his bravado to upstate New York, but still couldn't beat Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

REALISTIC REACTION >> Brady and Belichick have made plenty of coaches look bad over the past 15 seasons. The Bills (1-1) aren't ready to topple New England, but they can contend for a playoff spot.

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OVERREACTION >> This is the best Gang Green defense in Jets history. A 20-7 road win over Andrew Luck and the Colts (0-2) showed the Jets are the real deal.

REALISTIC REACTION >> Shutting Luck down is more impressive than doing it to Johnny Manziel in Week 1, but it's only two games. Ryan's crew did it for 16 games in 2009 and 2010 when the Jets went to the AFC title game both seasons.

How the Indianapolis Colts Can Re-Establish Their Offensive Identity

The Indianapolis Colts are slipping closer and closer to losing this season.

That seems like a drastic statement to make two games into a 16-game season, but these last two weeks have been drastically disappointing. The Colts offense, which is supposed to be its strength, has been abominable. Even against two strong defenses, scoring just 21 points in two games is simply unacceptable.

While the Colts have put resources into the defense and special teams, there is no question about where the strength of this team lies. But if the strength of the team can't perform, the team loses.

This doesn't look like a team that is guaranteed to win the AFC South. It certainly doesn't look like a team that is anywhere close to returning to the AFC Championship Game.

There is still hope, of course, but it must lie on the offense getting back to at least 2014 levels, if not the high levels of potential the team exuded over the offseason. So how can the Colts rebound, and truly rebound? Playing well against the Tennessee Titans is one thing, but that won't necessarily indicate a long-term solution.

So what substantial changes can the Colts make to put together a cohesive, consistent offense?

There could be lineup changes, such as putting Joe Reitz in a starting guard position for Lance Louis or even Todd Herremans. DonteMoncrief could get more snaps than Andre Johnson, whose age and lack of mobility is clearly a problem at the moment. The Colts could ride Frank Gore a bit more, utilizing him in the passing game and easing back on the snaps for rookies Josh Robinson and Tyler Varga. 

Some executional improvements would certainly help as well. Simple things like avoiding penalties, missed field goals and non-contact fumbles (I'm looking at you, Frank Gore) would have directly resulted in 13 more points over the last two weeks.

But the biggest improvement that must be made is that Andrew Luckmust be better. Part of that is simply on him playing at a higher level, being more aware and careful with the football while also having more accurate throws.

That's something that should revert to normal levels. But the Colts also should be trying to put Luck in the best possible position, especially after the personnel that was acquired in the offseason. The Colts clearly value Luck and want to give him tools, but what is the point of those tools if the offensive identity is disjointed?

On one play, the Colts will run a jumbo set, running two or three receivers down the field and putting maximum protection in front of Luck to account for blitzers. On the next, they'll run an empty backfield with five wideouts and no extra blockers to help pick up the blitz. 

It's similar to the old Stanford sets that Pep Hamilton and Luck used to thrive on. The problem is that this team isn't Stanford. This is a team with a below-average offensive line and above-average skill position players. It's a group with a bunch of new skill position players who are getting used to each others' speeds and skill sets.

And in the end, it's a unit with zero rhythm and consistency, and a large part of that comes from the fact that it is trying to do too much.

A great example of the disconnected play-calling came in the first quarter of the team's 20-7 loss to the New York Jets.

Down 7-0, the Colts started at their own 24-yard line. They had two-tight end or heavy jumbo formation on the entire drive and did a great job running the ball and getting play action. They ran the ball three times for 35 yards and got a 30-yard play-action pass to DonteMoncrief.

Then they had a 2nd-and-2 on the Jets' 11-yard line. They ran a play-action pass to Joe Reitz, an offensive lineman, and then switched to a shotgun, three-wide receiver formation and ran a fade to T.Y. Hilton (covered by Darrelle Revis).

Why the sudden change? Stick with what works instead of trying to outsmart the defense on every play.

The Colts, starting with Luck, need to get into a rhythm running 11 personnel in a no-huddle offense for a game or two.

They need to get their young, fast wide receivers stacked up to create mismatches with the route combinations. Let T.Y. Hilton, DonteMoncrief and Phillip Dorsett stretch the field while Dwayne Allen and Frank Gore eat over the middle and in the flats. Andre Johnson, as good as his career has been, should not be a focal point in the offense.

Let that offensive core get a large portion of the reps together to build that consistency and rhythm.

Dorsett, in particular, needs to get more repetitions with Luck. Perhaps he's overwhelmed with Pep Hamilton's offense, but there's nothing wrong with giving him a more well-defined role. He has enough speed to make problems for the defense just by running go routes and drags across the field.

What seems to make the most sense is to let Luck run the no-huddle early, both to keep the offense in a rhythm as well as to keep defenses from being able to tee off with all kinds of different blitzes every play.

The biggest goal for Indianapolis right now is to get Andrew Luck into a rhythm. The best way to do that is to get a running game going and to throw quick, easy throws that are created because of well-schemed route combinations.

It seems like a lot of suggestions, but it really comes down to one thing.

Simplify.

There are a lot of new pieces with little chemistry. It's an offense that must get into a rhythm. There's enough talent there that the personnel groupings don't have to get cute.

Chip Kelly 'embarrassed' by Eagles' performance against Cowboys

PHILADELPHIA -- Chip Kelly's offense looked better with all the players he didn't want.

Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray and Co. were dismal in Sunday's 20-10 loss to Dallas that dropped the Philadelphia Eagles to 0-2.

"I was embarrassed," Kelly said Monday. "That's not the way we're supposed to play football."

The Cowboys held Philadelphia to 21 yards total offense in the first half and didn't allow a touchdown until the game was out of reach in the final minutes. The biggest problem was the offensive line. Murray had nowhere to run and finished with 2 yards on 13 carries.

Kelly made massive changes after taking control of personnel decisions in the offseason. He traded 2013 Pro Bowl quarterback Nick Foles for Bradford. He traded two-time All-Pro running back LeSean McCoy for linebacker Kiko Alonso. He let Pro Bowl wide receiver Jeremy Maclin walk away in free agency a year after releasing three-time Pro Bowl wideout DeSean Jackson.

It's easy to question those moves now. But the decision to release two-time Pro Bowl left guard Evan Mathis because of a contract dispute, and longtime starting right guard Todd Herremans for salary-cap purposes, are the ones haunting Kelly.

Allen Barbre, who replaced Mathis, and Andrew Gardner, who replaced Herremans, each had eight career starts before this season. They've struggled along with their veteran linemates.

"The personnel is good enough, but the execution isn't good enough," Kelly said.

The Eagles had arguably the best offensive line in the NFL in Kelly's first season in 2013. Jason Peters, Mathis, Jason Kelce, Herremans and Lane Johnson started every game and paved the way for McCoy to set a franchise-record for yards rushing. The Eagles went 10-6 and won the NFC East.

The unit didn't start one game together last season because of injuries, but the offense still averaged 124.5 yards rushing per game. They have just 70 yards in two games this season.

"It doesn't matter who the running back is, we are not doing anything upfront to give him an opportunity," Kelce said. "We have got to get this fixed up front. We have to get it better."

The Eagles had Super Bowl aspirations after a 3-1 preseason in which Bradford looked sharp by leading the offense to four touchdowns on four series in the two games he played. But defenses didn't game plan for Philadelphia's up-tempo offense in those games.

So forget Super Bowl, making the playoffs is tough enough now.

Since the NFL expanded its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, only 23 teams of 204 (11.2 percent) made the playoffs after an 0-2 start. Only two of 45 teams that started 0-2 since 2009 made the playoffs. The Colts did it last year and reached the AFC championship game. Carolina did it in 2013.

The Eagles are 0-2 for first time since 2007, when they finished 8-8. They opened the 2003 season with home losses to Tampa Bay and New England, but went 12-2 the rest of the way and lost the NFC title game to the Panthers.

"We're overthinking things instead of going out and playing fundamental football," Kelly said.

Next up for Philadelphia is a game at the New York Jets. Then Jets will be coming off a short week following Monday night's game at Indianapolis.

How Jets' blitzes forced Indianapolis Colts' Andrew Luck into mistakes | Defensive film review

Luck was especially ineffective while facing pressure. Of Luck's 41 drop-backs, 21 came under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus. On those 21 drop-backs, Luck was 7-of-18 passing for 68 yards, one touchdown, and three picks. He also ran three times while under pressure. His quarterback rating on those 21 plays was 29.2. 

Jets coach Todd Bowles blitzed Luck on 18 of his 41 drop-backs, per PFF. Two of Luck's interceptions, and his lone touchdown pass, came when he faced a blitz. Luck had a 48.8 rating when blitzed. 

Let's take a look back at the film and see just what made the Jets' pass-rushing pressure against Luck so effective — and difficult for Luck and his struggling offensive line to handle. We'll examine five key plays from Monday's game. 

The situation: Second-and-18 at Colts' 21

The score: Jets 0, Colts 0; 8:41 left in first quarter 

The result: Calvin Pryor interception that led to Jets' 9-yard touchdown "drive"

Analysis: The Jets showed a six-man box, with four along the line. Slot cornerback Buster Skrine, playing in the nickel package, lined up in coverage at his usual spot. When the ball was snapped, the Jets brought five box defenders, along with Skrine. Quinton Coples immediately hung back, to bump and cover tight end Dwayne Allen, who ran down the field. But then, after bluffing a rush, interior lineman Leger Douzable dropped off. He slid back into the second level, and bumped Andre Johnson as he crossed the field, from the slot. Douzable's bump altered Johnson's crossing pattern. By this point, Skrine had a wide-open shot at Luck's blind side. Luck had to rush the throw out, just before Skrine got there. The pass sailed high for Johnson, went off his hand, and landed in Pryor's mitts. Why was Skrine able to get into the backfield untouched? Well, there was no running back in the backfield to protect Luck because Frank Gore immediately had to step forward, to block a blitzing David Harris. 

Behind Enemy Lines: An Inside Look at the Colts

TitansOnline.com Senior Writer and Editor Jim Wyatt catches up with Mike Chappell, who has covered the Colts since 1984, now with Fox59/CBS54, for some insight on the team he covers.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – After opening the season with back-to-back road games, the Titans will play their home opener at Nissan Stadium on Sunday against the Colts. 

It’s a key AFC South game, and big for both teams. The Titans (1-1) will be looking to snap a seven-game losing streak against their division rivals, while the Colts (0-2) will be looking to bounce back after a rocky start.

This week I caught up with Mike Chappell, who has covered the Colts since 1984, now with Fox59/CBS54, for some insight on the team he covers. You can follow Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.

Wyatt: I’m going to keep it simple out of the gate. This team was predicted to be a Super Bowl contender. What’s wrong the Colts?

Chappell: “The biggest problem is the offensive line. I thought it would be OK, but it hasn’t been. The most telling comment from after the game against the Jets came from coach (Chuck) Pagano, when he was asked if Andrew Luck was having to speed up his game because of the pressure, and he just said. 'He’s been dealing with this the last three years. We have to get it fixed.' It has been an ongoing problem, and right now the issue is they just can’t handle the blitz. Luck is getting clean shots on him, and someone is always breaking down. Todd Herremans is the right guard, and he just isn’t very good. Lance Louis, the left guard, has really struggled as well. Everybody else has just done OK. Anthony Castonzo at left tackle has been OK, but Jeff Mewhort at right tackle is learning. To me, I think it has left Luck skittish. He was sacked twice and hit 11 times against the Jets. On one of the interceptions he was getting hit. So the main problem is the offensive line. And until they get it fixed, I don’t care if the opponent is a blitzing team or not, they’re going to blitz.”

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Wyatt: Quarterback Andrew Luck has sure struggled himself, and he’s coming off a game when he threw three interceptions. Are the Colts concerned with his play?

Chappell: “Well, he had 22 turnovers last year, which was second in the league behind Jay Cutler, and he has six already this year – five interceptions and a fumble. Pagano, again, seemed frustrated with that. He said, 'We can’t turn the damn ball over.' And he directly got on Luck for it, telling him he can’t turn it over and how he needs to make better decisions. It was so reminiscent of 2001 when Jim Mora went after Peyton Manning after he had five turnovers against the 49ers. Mora was like, 'Don’t blame the defense, you can’t turn the ball over' and yada, yada. People have said, Pagano is 'throwing the quarterback under the bus' when talking about Luck. Well, he has six turnovers. You just can’t be doing that. And until Luck gets this straightened out it’s going to be tough. Whether he is trying to do too much or what, I don’t know. But six turnovers by Luck, it makes it hard. This team has so many flaws, and Manning covered them up when he was here and Luck did early, but if the quarterback is making mistakes like that they have no chance. None.”

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Wyatt: The fan base in Indianapolis has been used to winning over the years. The team’s won four of the last six AFC South titles. But I saw fans filing out of Lucas Oil Stadium early on Monday night. What’s the mood in Indy?

Chappell: “It’s frustration, and anger. They were booing in the third quarter. The expectations are there, and they were probably higher than they should have been because of what they have done. The team hasn’t really bought into the Super Bowl-or-bust hype, but the fans sure did, and fans are upset. And then you have the real or perceived rift between (Colts GM Ryan) Grigson and Pagano, and this is only going to make it worse. So there’s frustration and there’s anger, and the only way to silence that is to start winning. They’re 0 and 2 for the second straight year, but this is different. They showed some life against Denver and Philadelphia last year, but they’ve fallen to double digit deficits by halftime in the first two this year. The defense played well enough for them to win Monday night against the Jets, but until this offense gets fixed it’s going to be a train wreck from one week after another. Until they get the offense fixed it’s going to be a major struggle for everybody.”

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Wyatt: The Colts have had a lot of success against the Titans of late, winning seven straight in the series and 12 of the last 13. Is this the week the Colts right the ship and begin to turn things around?

Chappell: “I think going into the season everybody thought Houston was going to be the team to contend with, but with the way things have started with Marcus Mariota and the Titans, you just don’t know. It’s just two games, so you don’t know what’s going to happen, especially with a rookie quarterback. I think they still look at Houston as the team most likely to challenge. The Colts, with Luck, have dominated the AFC South. I think the record is 16-2, so the Colts have had a lot of success in the division. With the Titans, Jaguars and Texans coming up there’s a chance to get things right against teams they’ve had success against. But I’ll be honest – the Colts haven’t given anyone reason to think the AFC South is suddenly going to be a cakewalk the way they’ve played. The pressure is on the Colts to go into Tennessee and win. They’ve overcome 0 and 2 starts a few times and made the playoffs, but they’ve never overcome an 0 and 3 start and made the playoffs. Until they show something more, it’s hard to say they’re on the verge. I sort of expect them to win Sunday, but right now I don’t know what evidence I’d give to say they’re going to all of a sudden turn things around.”

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Wyatt: Pagano is in the final year of his contract with the Colts. Is he on the hot seat?

Chappell: “I think it is warm. Initially I thought it was a perceived rift with Grigson and Pagano, and really I don’t know if the rift is between Pagano and Grigson, or (owner Jim) Irsay and Pagano. I just don’t know. Last night it made it clear to me, when Pagano took a shot at the offensive line and said 'the offensive line has been like this for three years,' well, that’s a shot at Grigson. They have just not done much to fix the offensive line. And I think the fact that Irsay only offered Pagano a one-year extension with a minimal raise in the offseason, that’s hardly an endorsement of your head coach. So I think there is something there, and Monday night was as angry as I’ve ever seen Pagano in a post-game press conference. He is either feeling the heat, or he just isn’t going to stand there and give us coach-speak. So there is something there, and as long as things go like this, it is only going to get worse. I wouldn’t begin to say that Irsay would make a change during the season because how often has that worked? But it’s clear there is something there and the longer this goes like this it is only going to get worse.